Should you buy the Topstep 50K Combine?
Expected payout per fee dollar under the firm's actual rules, at your numbers. No upload, no account, no affiliate links — this page is paid by nobody and will say no.
The Topstep 50K Combine: $3,000 profit target against a $2,000 trailing drawdown, a $1,000 daily loss limit, a best-day consistency rule (50%). Default fee $49 per month while in the evaluation — editable below, and worth verifying on the firm's page. Enter your own statistics (from a broker export, excluding your top 5% of trades) and get the expected payout per fee dollar under this plan's actual rules — a ratio computed before you buy, by a page that is paid by nobody and will tell you no.
$0.60 back per fee dollar
At these numbers each fee dollar returns about $0.60. The evaluation is a losing purchase; the firm's rules, not the market, are the counterparty.
That is the Topstep 50K Combine at the prefilled numbers below — a 45% win rate, 1.2R winners, 1R losers, one trade a day. Put in yours and press Compute.
| Your expectancy at these inputs | -0.010 R per trade |
|---|---|
| Pass rate per attempt | 25% |
| Reached a funded account within 6 attempts | 84% of simulated traders |
| Attempts used (mean) | 3.3 · about 99 calendar days each |
| Fees paid per cycle (mean) | $745 |
| Paid out to you per cycle (mean, after split) | $446 |
| Ever received a payout | 19% |
| Cycle ended net positive | 16% · median net $-662 |
| Months to first payout (median, among those paid) | 10.5 |
| How funded accounts ended | blown 165 · never funded 33 · censored 2 |
| Win rate needed to break even at your R profile | ≈ 45% |
A cycle = evaluations until one passes (max 6), then the funded account until it blows, is extracted, or two years pass. 200 simulated cycles. Rules applied: trailing max-loss floor on end-of-day equity freezing at $50,000; daily loss limit $1,000 locks the day; best day ≤ 50% of profit at pass; contracts capped at 5 and rounded down to your risk.
What this is not. Not a strategy, not advice, and not a prediction of your results — it is the arithmetic of the firm's rules applied to the numbers you typed. If the numbers came from memory they are wrong in the direction that flatters you; the ones that matter are from your broker's export, with your top 5% of trades removed. Trades per day are Poisson; R has a lognormal spread (σ 0.35) around your averages; the stop is constant. Fees are defaults we last checked on the date shown and are probably stale — edit them.
This page carries no affiliate links or discount codes and never will. Why it exists: fourteen studies validated a hindsight stop. Per-plan calculators: MFFU 100K Rapid · MFFU Builder 50K · Topstep 50K Combine · Bulenox 100K Option 1 (realtime trail) · Bulenox 100K Option 2 (EOD trail + DLL) · Apex 100K EOD (4.0) — 30-day eval, payout ladder · FTMO 100K 2-Step (US100 CFD; conservative single-phase proxy). For the full eight-measurement report on your own broker export: upload it here ($29, one-off — see a sample).